MARKET UPDATE — SEPTEMBER 2026

Ocean · Air · Ground · Customs & Trade Compliance

Data current as of September 4, 2026

Most forecasts had the transpacific softening once Labor Day passed. It didn’t. The September 1 general rate increase went through on both coasts and spot rates set fresh peak season highs, the seventeenth increase on the East Asia to USA lane this year against roughly six in a normal year.

The compliance side is where we’d push harder. Two deadlines land in the next two weeks, and neither shows up as a penalty notice six months later, both stop the box at the port.

Since our last update:

• Canada published its retaliation list on August 25, covering 874 tariff lines, taking effect September 8.
• CBP begins voiding importer of record numbers on September 18 where Form 5106 data is wrong. No warning, no cure period.
• The Panama Canal pushed both draft reduction steps back. That correction is in your favor, details below.

What We’re Seeing

CMA CGM, COSCO, Evergreen, Hapag-Lloyd, HMM, Yang Ming and ZIM all filed for the September 1 GRI on the East Asia to USA lane, and it held on both coasts. We’re deliberately not printing a filed dollar figure, carriers trim GRIs before the effective date and again per account, so the tariff filing isn’t the number you’ll actually pay. Ask us for the applied amount on your specific carrier.

Rate Direction

Lane	Benchmark	Level	Week on week
Asia → USWC	FBX spot	Above $7,600 / 40ft	Up 2%
Asia → USEC	FBX spot	About $9,800 / 40ft	Up 2%
Shanghai → Los Angeles	Drewry WCI	$7,185 / 40ft	Up 5%
Shanghai → New York	Drewry WCI	$9,587 / 40ft	Up 3%
Asia → North Europe	Drewry WCI	$4,092 / 40ft	Down 5%
Asia → Mediterranean	Drewry WCI	$4,368 / 40ft	Down 10%
North Europe → USA	FBX spot	About $2,600 / 40ft	Up $400 in a fortnight

One caution: these indices aren’t measuring the same thing. Which basis your own contract references matters more than the headline number, we’re happy to walk through it with you.

Capacity, not demand, is doing most of the work. Typhoons have hit the Far East since mid-July with no port fully clearing before the next arrives; at peak, roughly 90 ships waited more than a week for a Shanghai berth. Blank sailings continue through the month (12 East Coast/Gulf, 13 West Coast), partly offset by three extra loaders clearing West Coast backlog. Demand has also been more stubborn than expected, data center hardware and tariff-refund-driven inventory rebuilding may both be contributing.

Our last update flagged that advisories disagreed on the draft schedule for late August and September. Here’s the confirmed figure, and it’s better than the restrictive reading we’d been modeling against. The Canal Authority postponed both scheduled steps: the 48.0-foot (14.63 m) Neopanamax limit took effect September 2, rather than the previously reported August 26, and the further drop to 47.5 feet (14.48 m) has moved from September 3 out to October 1. Transit capacity is being cut regardless: effective September 3, Neopanamax locks run 9 transits per day and Panamax locks run 25, with Panamax dropping to 23 daily transits on September 15. If you have a heavy loading planned, confirm the current draft figure with us before fixing the booking, this schedule has already moved twice. Carriers have priced canal costs into Asia–East Coast and Gulf services through separate Panama surcharges with their own effective dates and scopes, sitting outside the GRI; build these into your September and October landed cost now.

What This Means for You

• Book four to five weeks ahead out of China. Congestion, blanked sailings, and Ningbo equipment tightness mean the published schedule and the space you can actually get are two different things.
• Settle your holiday shipping plan this week. Mid-Autumn Festival runs September 25–27 and Golden Week runs October 1–7; the booking rush builds through mid-September.
• Price the West Coast and rail option properly. With the East Coast carrying roughly a $2,200 premium per 40ft plus stacked Panama costs, Memphis, Dallas, and Atlanta are worth quoting both ways.
• Expect another increase around September 15. Short validities remain the better protection.
• Asia–Europe is moving the other way, down on both North Europe and Mediterranean legs. Short-term coverage beats a long fixture at today’s levels.
• On the transatlantic, further September increases have been announced out of North Europe; we don’t expect them to hold in full. Talk to us before accepting one at face value.
• The October 1 draft step and the September 15 Panamax slot reduction land on different dates with different operational effects, calendar them separately.

What We’re Seeing

The global benchmark eased 10% last week but remains more than 20% up year over year. Far East to US came off 7% to around $6.00/kg; Far East to Europe went the other way, up 1% to about $4.60/kg. Both began climbing again this week, almost certainly the same typhoons.

Fuel is the part to watch. Distillate refining margins are at record levels, so base rate cuts are being taken straight back through the surcharge line, compare quotes all-in this month.

Ex-China air into the US is the tightest mode on our book right now and will tighten further as ocean space disappears into the holiday period. Taipei and Seoul are effectively their own market on semiconductor and AI hardware; give those lanes two to three weeks regardless of what the rest of the network is doing.

What This Means for You

• Compare quotes all-in, not base rate only.
• If you want Q4 block space, buy it now rather than in October.
• Give Taipei/Seoul lanes extra lead time independent of general network conditions.

What We’re Seeing

Diesel fell for a second week: $5.599/gallon national average for the week ending August 31, down 5.3 cents, but still $1.865 above the same week last year.

Region	Diesel per gallon	Note
US average	$5.599	Down 5.3 cents on the week
East Coast	$5.448	Down 5.0 cents
Midwest	$5.571
Gulf Coast	$5.360	Cheapest region
Rocky Mountain	$5.555
West Coast	$6.497	California at $7.218

Truckload is tight because capacity left, not because freight grew: new authorities are down, net fleet counts keep falling, and enforcement has pulled low-cost capacity out of the market. Flatbed and reefer are the tight segments; reefer is creeping up as produce peaks in California, the Pacific Northwest, and Idaho.

What This Means for You

• Check what your fuel surcharge resets against. Diesel has moved more than 80 cents in both directions since June; a surcharge referencing a monthly or quarterly average works against you as often as for you. This is the single highest-value check most shippers can make this month.
• Commit your Q4 capacity now rather than anchoring a twelve-month contract to summer spot.
• Build storm contingency into Gulf and Southeast lanes. Hurricane season is meeting a market with far less slack than it had two years ago.

Rather than compress multiple major stories into one section, we’ve published the significant developments as their own briefings:

• Canada’s Counter-Tariffs on U.S. Goods Take Effect September 8
• CBP Will Void Importer of Record Numbers Over Inaccurate Form 5106 Data Starting September 18
• New CBP Penalty Mitigation Standards Due by September 1: What’s Changing
• How to Sequence Multiple HTSUS Classifications When Section 301, 338, and 232 All Apply

The practical takeaways, in one place:

Immediately:

1. Pull and verify your Form 5106 record, legal entity name, tax ID, physical address, phone, and email, before September 18.
2. Screen Canadian-origin entries against all three proclamation annexes and headings 9903.03.12 through 9903.03.16, including the 0% carve-outs for steel, aluminum, copper derivatives, certain vehicles/parts, wood, semiconductors, patented pharmaceuticals, and civil aircraft.
3. Confirm your bond is sufficient. A 50% additional duty will breach limits set on pre-August assumptions.
4. Review FTZ admissions for covered goods and confirm privileged foreign status; check whether your products fall under Section 232 instead, where the Section 338 duty doesn’t apply.

Through the rest of the quarter:

• Model the September 8 Canadian counter-tariffs across your export and cross-border flows, then check who absorbs them under your Incoterms and price-adjustment clauses.
• Revisit valuation methodology on covered entries. A 50% multiplier makes a valuation error expensive fast.
• Document reasonable care: written classification opinions, supplier origin verification, and a record that the review happened.

Dates to Calendar

Date	What Happens
September 8	Canadian counter-tariffs hit 874 US product lines at 15%, 25%, and 50%
September 15	Further transpacific increase expected; Panama locks drop to 23 daily Panamax slots
September 18	CBP begins voiding importer numbers over inaccurate Form 5106 data
September 25–27	Mid-Autumn Festival; origin factory and port slowdowns
October 1	Panama draft steps to 47.5 feet; MPF minimum and maximum increase
October 1–7	China Golden Week; blanked sailings and pre-holiday rush
October 14	USITC automotive rules-of-origin hearing

How We Can Help

• Pulling and reviewing your Form 5106 record ahead of September 18
• Annex and Chapter 99 screening for Canadian, Brazilian, and forced-labor-listed origins
• Landed cost modeling on the stacked duty basis, including the September 8 counter-tariffs
• FTZ, bonded warehouse, and drawback strategy on Section 338
• Rate and capacity planning across all modes, including the West Coast/rail comparison and your pre-holiday booking sequence
• Fuel surcharge and invoice audits against your contract terms

Contact the Alba team for assistance reviewing any of the above against your specific lanes and commodities.

This newsletter is general information, not legal advice. It reflects market conditions and published regulatory guidance to September 4, 2026. Rate benchmarks come from published market indices and will differ from your contracted and all-in pricing. Regulatory positions here are changing quickly, so please confirm specific duty treatment with your Alba representative before making commercial commitments.