MARKET UPDATE — AUGUST 24, 2026

Ocean · Air · Ground · Customs & Trade Compliance

Data current as of August 24, 2026

The picture has changed materially since our August 8 edition. Transpacific ocean rates did not unwind as many expected; they firmed. Panama Canal costs moved from an estimate to a set of filed surcharges that step up sharply in September. Diesel posted its largest weekly move of the summer.

The single largest development, though, sits outside freight rates entirely: after a three-day suspension and the collapse of last-minute negotiations, the additional 50% duty on specified Canadian goods took effect August 22, with Canada set to respond dollar for dollar beginning September 8. We’ve published a full breakdown of that action, along with three other significant compliance developments this month, as separate briefings — see the Customs & Trade Compliance section below for links.

The three developments most likely to affect you:

• The Canada 50% duty is in force as of August 22 — CBP guidance is published, and Canadian retaliation is dated September 8. Full details in our companion briefing.
• Ocean costs rose rather than eased, with Panama Canal surcharges stepping up between September 3 and September 12.
• CBP will begin voiding importer of record numbers on September 18 where Form 5106 data is inaccurate — alongside the narrower penalty mitigation standards arriving September 1.

Below is what we are seeing, what we expect, and where we would recommend you act. Your Alba team is available to work through any of it against your specific lanes and commodities.

What We’re Seeing

The transpacific firmed through August rather than unwinding. Drewry’s composite index rose 4% in the week to August 20, driven entirely by the transpacific: Shanghai to New York gained 9% to about $9,507 per FEU and Shanghai to Los Angeles gained 9% to about $6,802. Forwarder market levels into the East and Gulf coasts are running higher still, in a band of roughly $9,800 to $11,000 all-in, with little discounting available.

This is a capacity story more than a demand story. Carriers cancelled ten transpacific sailings in each of two consecutive weeks, with more scheduled, and August capacity into the US East Coast fell about 9% month on month. Across the major east-west trades, 49 blank sailings are expected between the weeks of August 17 and September 14, a 7% cancellation rate, with 59% of those concentrated on the transpacific eastbound. The fleet is larger than it was; the bookable share of it is not.

Panama has moved from background risk to a line item. The canal authority has stepped the Neopanamax draft down through the summer as it manages Gatun Lake ahead of a confirmed El Niño, with further adjustments dated August 26 and September 3, and daily transit slots scheduled to fall from 34 on September 4 to 32 by September 15. Carriers have priced it: CMA CGM moves to $500 per TEU on September 10, MSC to $149 per TEU on September 12, with Hapag-Lloyd at $130 per TEU since August 15 and ONE at $150 per TEU on transpacific eastbound.

Asia–Europe continues to move the other way. Shanghai to Rotterdam eased about 1% to roughly $4,401 and Shanghai to Genoa about 2% to roughly $4,955. Announced Asia–Mediterranean FAK levels of $6,700 to $7,100 from August 15 look difficult to sustain against current demand. Separately, low water on the Rhine has pushed the Kaub gauge to a historic low, which is a real constraint on inland European delivery legs.

Rate Direction

Trade Lane	Direction	Current Benchmark
Asia → US West Coast	Up	About $6,800 / 40ft
Asia → US East Coast	Up, tight	About $9,500 / 40ft index
Asia → North Europe	Down	About $4,400 / 40ft
Asia → Mediterranean	Down	About $4,950 / 40ft
Transatlantic	Firming	Modest gains

The Red Sea position has reversed since our last edition. The Gemini alliance, CMA CGM and Cosco are returning to Suez routings on economics rather than improved security, and the return carries its own cost: emergency bunker surcharges of roughly $90 per FEU and canal transit surcharges of $200 to $1,000 per FEU begin landing in mid-September, with war-risk premiums still elevated.

What This Means For You

• Keep 3–4 weeks of lead time ex-Asia. Blank sailings and residual typhoon-related congestion mean the gap between scheduled and usable capacity is the binding constraint, not headline vessel supply.
• Avoid rolling East Coast and Gulf cargo. Panama draft restrictions and slot reductions leave no cushion on these services, and rolled cargo stacks onto sailings that are already tight.
• Revise your Panama surcharge assumption upward. Our August 8 estimate of roughly $150 per container is now low. Model the filed carrier levels — up to $500 per TEU from September 10 — into September landed cost now, not when the invoice arrives.
• Do not read the late-August lull as a downtrend. Carriers are holding rate floors through an elongated peak. Short validities still protect you, but we would not plan a September buy around a correction that has not materialized.
• Consider spot or short-term coverage on Asia–Europe. Rates continue to ease; long fixtures at current levels are likely to age badly.
• Ask us to flag Suez-routed strings and Rhine-dependent inland legs. Routing changes and new surcharge lines are arriving in the same booking notice, and Rhine levels are affecting European delivery schedules.

What We’re Seeing

The premium built up after February continues to unwind. Global spot rates averaged $3.12 per kilogram in July — 28% above the same month last year, but down 6% from June, with the pace of year-on-year growth slowing for a second consecutive month from a 41% peak in May and 38% in June. August figures are not yet published; we expect a further modest easing when they are.

Expectations for a strong Q4 peak remain absent. Charter demand is negligible, demand growth slowed to 4% year on year in July from 8% in June, and elevated inventories from earlier tariff-driven frontloading may leave less freight to move in the fourth quarter than usual. Full-year long-term rates are still forecast to finish 5% to 15% higher.

Fuel is now the dominant caveat, and it has worsened. Distillate refining margins have stretched to record territory, with Russian refining at a multi-decade low, damaged Middle East capacity out of the market, and US refineries running near 97% utilization. Base rates are falling; all-in costs are not falling with them.

Two exceptions to the softening. The transpacific holds firm, with Northeast and Southeast Asia to North America both about 33% above late-February levels as AI server and semiconductor demand absorbs space out of Taipei and Seoul. In the other direction, Europe to North America sits about 27% below late-February levels on ample summer belly capacity.

Rate Direction

• Global: Still easing, in small steps rather than sharp drops.
• Asia → Europe: The steepest declines in the market; China to Western Europe fell 22% month on month to about $4.15 per kilogram after the EU removed its €150 low-value threshold on July 1.
• Asia → North America: Firm, and tight out of Taipei and Seoul specifically.
• Fuel surcharges: Rising sharply, and increasingly offsetting base rate relief.

What This Means For You

• Compare quotes on an all-in basis. With distillate margins at records, base rate reductions are being recovered through surcharges faster than they were three weeks ago. A base-only comparison will mislead.
• The ocean-to-air conversion window on Europe-bound cargo is still open. Transatlantic belly capacity is ample, the cost spread remains favorable, and ocean reliability out of Asia is degraded.
• Semiconductor and AI hardware lanes are the exception. Pre-book Taiwan and Korea two to three weeks out. Conversion economics that work elsewhere do not apply on these lanes.
• Now is the time to secure Q4 allocation, not October. Soft markets are when block space commitments are cheapest, and carriers are short on committed volume.
• Review your surcharge pass-through. Fuel adjustments are moving inside traditional notice periods. We are happy to audit recent invoices against your contract terms.

What We’re Seeing

The domestic truckload market remains tight because capacity has left, not because freight is growing. Carrier authorities are not being granted at prior rates, net fleet counts continue to decline, and enforcement actions removing invalid CDLs and shutting down noncompliant driving schools have taken meaningful low-cost capacity out of the market. Shipment volumes are softening — the Cass shipments index fell 4.8% year on year in July — while spend keeps rising.

All-mode tender rejections have eased to roughly 13.5% from the July peak of 17.65%, but remain far above the 4.75% recorded a year ago. Dry van spot is running near $3.34 per mile including fuel; refrigerated is near $3.76 and still edging up on produce demand. Flatbed and refrigerated remain the tight segments.

The dominant cost story this month is fuel. The national average diesel price jumped 19.7 cents in a single week to $5.454 per gallon, the largest weekly move of the summer, erasing the one dip the market managed in early August. Since late February crude is up roughly 26% while diesel is up more than 70%, with the refining spread between them above $90 a barrel. This is structural until refining capacity returns, and it resets every fuel surcharge that references the index.

That fuel move is flowing through the whole surface market. Second-quarter LTL prices paid by shippers, including fuel, rose 19.6% year on year — the second-highest quarterly increase on record. Regionally, California outbound remains tight with diesel well above the national average, Texas and southern Arizona capacity is constrained by inspection and compliance activity lengthening turn times, and produce migration toward California, the Pacific Northwest and Idaho continues to tighten refrigerated capacity there.

One risk worth naming: hurricane season now meets a market with far less spare capacity than in prior years, so a Gulf or Southeast storm would have a wider network effect than the same storm would have had two years ago.

What This Means For You

• Re-base your fuel surcharge on current weekly data. A surcharge built on a monthly average or a mid-month forecast is now materially behind the market. This is the single highest-value change most shippers can make this month.
• Secure contracted capacity ahead of Labor Day and Q4. Shippers without committed capacity will face a rising spot market in September and October.
• Brake Safety Week is live this week, August 23–29. Some capacity is offline for inspections. Expect localized tightness on affected lanes through the end of the week.
• Do not anchor a twelve-month contract to August spot. The seasonal dip is real, but all-in rates remain roughly 50% above year-ago levels and spot still sits above contract.
• Book refrigerated and flatbed capacity early. These are the tight segments, and reefer pricing is moving up rather than down as produce peaks in the West and Northwest.
• Build a hurricane contingency into Gulf and Southeast lanes while capacity is thin. Pre-storm repositioning and post-storm recovery freight both tighten markets well beyond the affected area.

This is where the most significant developments sit this month. Rather than compress four major stories into one section, we’ve published each as its own briefing so you can go as deep as you need:

• Section 338: Canada’s 50% Duty Is Now in Force [link]
• Section 122 Sunsets, Section 301 Forced-Labor Duties Take Its Place [link]
• Where USMCA Stands After the July 1 Joint Review [link]
• CBP Enforcement Intensifies: What Changes September 1 and 18 [link]

The practical takeaways across all four, in one place:

Immediately:

1. Pull and verify your CBP Form 5106 record — legal entity name, EIN, physical business address, and direct phone and email — before September 18.
2. Screen Canadian-origin entries against all three proclamation annexes and the 9903.03.12 through 9903.03.16 headings, including which lines fall into the 0% carve-outs.
3. Confirm entries filed on or after August 22 carry the correct Chapter 99 heading and CBP’s specified reporting sequence.
4. Review FTZ admissions for covered goods and confirm privileged foreign status treatment.
5. Check whether covered products fall under Section 232 instead, where the Section 338 duty does not apply.
6. Confirm your bond is sufficient. A 50% additional duty will breach limits set on pre-August assumptions.

Through the rest of the quarter:

• Model Canadian retaliation from September 8 across your export and cross-border flows, and review who absorbs it under your Incoterms and price-adjustment clauses.
• Evaluate duty drawback on the Section 338 duty, which CBP has confirmed is available.
• Revisit valuation methodology on covered entries. A 50% multiplier makes valuation errors expensive.
• Refresh landed cost models for Canada, Brazil and forced-labor-listed origins, and re-screen against the expanded Section 301 exemption list.
• Document reasonable care: written classification opinions, supplier origin verification, and a record of the review.

Dates To Calendar

Date	Development
August 22	Section 338 Canada 50% duty in force; CBP guidance CSMS #69606660 issued
August 23–29	CVSA Brake Safety Week — domestic capacity offline for inspections
September 1–3	CBP penalty mitigation standards; Section 301 textile TRQs; Section 232 drone tariffs; Panama Canal draft step
September 8	Canadian dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs take effect
September 10–12	CMA CGM and MSC Panama Canal surcharge increases; Suez transit surcharges begin
September 18	CBP begins voiding importer of record numbers for inaccurate Form 5106 data
October	MPF minimum and maximum increase October 1; USITC automotive rules-of-origin hearing October 14

A Note On The Data

Where market sources genuinely disagree, we would rather tell you than pick a side. Two items this month:

• Panama Canal draft direction is reported inconsistently. Some advisories describe the August 26 and September 3 steps as further reductions, to 48.0 and then 47.5 feet; others describe the same dates as a partial recovery, to 48.0 and then 48.5 feet. Carrier surcharges are being filed on the restrictive reading. Confirm the operative draft with us before planning a heavy-weight loading.
• Fuel benchmarks are moving faster than they are published. With diesel up nearly 20 cents in a single week, a surcharge referencing a monthly or quarterly average is materially behind the market regardless of which index it names. If fuel matters to your budgeting, let us walk through both which benchmark your contract references and how often it resets.

How We Can Help

Your Alba team can support you on any of the above:

• Annex and Chapter 99 screening for Canadian, Brazilian and forced-labor-listed origins
• Form 5106 and importer of record review ahead of the September 18 enforcement date
• FTZ, bonded warehouse and drawback strategy on Section 338 duties
• Landed cost modeling on the confirmed stacked-duty basis, including September 8 Canadian retaliation
• Rate strategy and capacity planning across ocean, air and ground

Please reach out to your account manager, or contact us directly to arrange a review of your specific lanes and commodities.

This briefing is provided for general informational purposes and reflects market conditions and published regulatory guidance as of August 24, 2026. It is not legal advice. Regulatory positions in this area are changing rapidly, and we recommend confirming specific duty treatment with your Alba representative before making commercial commitments.