Ocean · Air · Ground · Customs & Trade Compliance

Data current as of August 8, 2026

What Matters This Month

August brings an unusual split across the freight markets. Ocean carriers are raising rates into softening demand, air cargo is easing back from its spring highs, and domestic trucking is tightening for reasons that have nothing to do with volume. Each mode requires a different response — a single strategy applied across your whole book will leave value on the table.

More consequential than any freight rate: the U.S. tariff framework has been substantially rebuilt over the past three weeks, and a significant new duty on Canadian goods takes effect August 19. For most importers, duty exposure now moves landed cost more than freight does.

The three developments most likely to affect you:

• A 50% duty on specified Canadian goods lands August 19 — and USMCA certificates do not exempt it.
• Section 122 has been replaced by Section 301 measures that carry no expiration date.
• Customs enforcement has intensified measurably, with new penalty standards arriving September 1.

We have outlined below what we are seeing, what we expect, and where we would recommend you act. Your Alba team is available to work through any of it against your specific lanes and commodities.

Ocean Freight

What We’re Seeing

The transpacific peak season is running longer than most forecasts anticipated. West Coast rates peaked above $7,500 per FEU in early July, eased roughly 20% to around $6,000, then moved back above $7,000 following August 1 general rate increases. East Coast rates have held near $9,000 per FEU since early July.

Whether the August increase holds is genuinely uncertain. Carriers implemented it successfully, and port congestion across central and southern China is supporting it. Working against it: many importers are deliberately holding cargo and rolling early-August bookings in anticipation of lower rates, and West Coast capacity has expanded with additional vessel deployments. Some carriers are already discounting.

Weather has become a material factor. Two typhoons struck Far East ports in recent weeks, with Typhoon Noul closing southern China ports in late July. Congestion at Shanghai is severe enough that some carriers are omitting the port entirely, with multi-day delays also reported at Ningbo, Shenzhen and Hong Kong.

Asia–Europe is moving the other way. Demand is cooling and carriers are discounting ahead of mid-August FAK resets from CMA CGM and MSC.

Rate Direction

Trade Lane	Direction	Current Benchmark
Asia → US West Coast	Up, but fragile	Approx. $6,500 / 40ft
Asia → US East Coast	Stable at peak	Approx. $9,000 to $9,300 / 40ft
Asia → North Europe	Down	Approx. $4,700 / 40ft
Asia → Mediterranean	Down	Approx. $5,600 / 40ft
Transatlantic	Stable	Limited movement

Red Sea diversions remain the default routing, so the structural capacity relief that a Suez return would bring is still not in view.

What This Means For You

• Build in longer lead times ex-South China. We recommend 3–4 weeks for August and early September bookings while typhoon recovery and Shanghai congestion work through.
• Avoid rolling East Coast and Gulf cargo. Panama Canal draft restrictions are structural rather than seasonal, and there is no capacity cushion on these services.
• Budget for a Panama Canal surcharge. Carriers are expected to introduce roughly $150 per container in the second half of August on affected routings.
• Ask us for shorter rate validities on the transpacific. With the August increase unsettled, a 7–14 day validity protects you if the market softens rather than locking you into the top.
• Consider spot or short-term coverage on Asia–Europe. Rates are falling; long fixtures at current levels are likely to age badly.
• Let us flag your Shanghai-origin bookings. Carrier port omissions are not always communicated downstream, and early notice gives you options.

Air Freight

What We’re Seeing

The rate premium that built up after February has been unwinding steadily. Global air cargo spot rates averaged $3.12 per kilogram in July — still 28% above the same month last year, but down 6% from June, and the pace of year-on-year growth has now slowed for two consecutive months from a May peak.

Expectations for a strong Q4 peak have faded across the market. Charter demand is notably absent, and elevated inventories from earlier tariff-driven frontloading may mean less freight to move in the fourth quarter than usual.

One important caveat: fuel is now setting the floor. Jet fuel has leveled off but remains roughly a third higher than a month ago, and carriers have announced August fuel surcharge increases. Base rates are falling faster than all-in costs.

The transpacific is the exception to all of this. Capacity out of Taiwan and South Korea remains genuinely tight as AI server and semiconductor demand absorbs available space.

Rate Direction

• Global: Declining, but gradually — expect small steps rather than sharp drops through the northern summer.
• Asia → Europe: The steepest declines in the market.
• Asia → North America: Firm, and tight out of Taipei and Seoul specifically.
• Fuel surcharges: Rising, partially offsetting base rate relief.

What This Means For You

• Compare quotes on an all-in basis. Base rate reductions are being partly recovered through August surcharge increases. A base-only comparison will mislead.
• This is a good window for ocean-to-air conversion on Europe-bound cargo. The cost spread is the most favorable it has been since February, and ocean reliability out of Asia is currently degraded.
• Semiconductor and AI hardware lanes are the exception. If you move cargo out of Taiwan or Korea, secure space early — conversion economics that work elsewhere do not apply here.
• Now is the time to secure Q4 allocation, not October. Soft markets are when block space commitments are cheapest, and carriers are short on committed volume.
• Review your surcharge pass-through. Fuel adjustments are moving inside traditional notice periods. We are happy to audit recent invoices against your contract terms.

Ground Transportation

What We’re Seeing

The domestic truckload market is tightening because capacity is leaving, not because freight is growing. Carrier authorities are not being granted at prior rates, net fleet counts continue to decline, and enforcement actions removing invalid CDLs and shutting down noncompliant driving schools have taken meaningful low-cost capacity out of the market. Several major carriers have publicly attributed current conditions to supply rather than demand.

Tender rejection rates have eased from a July peak of 17.65% to around 14%, but that remains far above the 4.75% recorded a year ago. Flatbed and refrigerated are tighter still.

Spot rates have declined roughly 30 to 40 cents per mile over the past five weeks in a normal post-holiday pattern. That softness is seasonal. All-in truckload rates remain approximately 50% above year-ago levels, which looks like a structural reset rather than a cycle. Spot has moved above contract for the first time since 2021.

Regionally: California outbound is tight with diesel running well above the national average; Texas and southern Arizona capacity is constrained by inspection and compliance activity lengthening turn times; and produce migration toward California, the Pacific Northwest and Idaho is tightening refrigerated capacity in those markets.

On-highway diesel remains elevated and will keep pressure on all-in costs through peak season.

What This Means For You

• Secure contracted capacity this month. The window before peak season demand fully materializes is closing. Shippers without committed capacity will face a rising spot market in September and October.
• Treat the current spot dip as a buying opportunity, not a benchmark. We would not recommend anchoring a twelve-month contract to August spot levels.
• Consider drop-trailer programs on your predictable, high-volume lanes. At current rejection rates, carriers prioritize shippers who minimize dwell.
• Plan around CVSA Brake Safety Week, August 23–29. Some capacity comes offline for inspections. We would suggest pulling critical shipments forward to the week of August 17.
• Price California, Texas and Arizona lanes separately. National averages meaningfully understate cost in all three.
• Book refrigerated capacity early in the West and Northwest through late August and September as produce season peaks there.